Report of the
Head of Education Commissioning and School
Organisation.
Over the last 5 years there has
been a significant reduction in demand for school places within
Camden and the wider London area. Forecasts of pupil demand have
also been created in times of unprecedented change and challenge
for families in Camden. Specifically, the effects of the COVID-19
pandemic have fundamentally altered people’s lives and
changed patterns of migration within central London and Camden
Borough specifically. The impacts of these have reduced the
anticipated level of demand for school places. These factors also
created a significant degree of uncertainty, and a less stable
environment in which to plan ahead. Our
modelling aims to account for these as best as they can, but they
also rely on assumptions of future trends that can only be
accurately assessed over time.
In response to these changing local
demographics the Council has taken a proactive approach to school
place planning. Since 2018 the Council, in partnership with its
family of schools, has removed 10 forms of entry from our reception
intake, responding to a 24% reduction in birth rates across the
borough. These difficult decisions including four school closures,
the most recent being the closure of St Dominic’s Catholic
Primary School, ensure that our family schools remain both
sustainable and responsive to the needs of their communities.
Forecasts up to 2021 indicated a significant
ongoing decline in pupil numbers. At that stage the Council
indicated some caution in those figures as potentially
over-estimating the ongoing impact of reduced migration caused by
both Brexit and the Pandemic. In September 2021 and 2022 entry into
the Boroughs Secondary and Primary Schools were above the forecast
for those years and this is a positive position for Camden Schools.
During this period Camden Schools also welcomed a large number of Afghan and Ukrainian Families as
part of the Afghan resettlement programme and the Homes for Ukraine
programme. Whilst a number of the pupils
have relocated within the UK, a proportion have also settled within
Camden and bolstered pupil numbers as a result. As the national
position has stabilised and our local position has taken account of
these trends our most recent forecasts indicate a more consistent
position and now show an increase in pupil demand towards the end
of the decade.
The forecast data does however still show
supressed birth rates within London and Camden alongside the
continued effect of reductions in families moving into Camden
during the COVID period.
Primary:
The surplus over the reception year admission
number is estimated to rise 7% in 2023/24 to 13% by the middle of
the decade before falling to 4% by 2032/33.
Secondary:
The Secondary Year 7 surplus is estimated to
increase from 10% in 2023/24 to 21% by 2032/3.
This level of anticipated surplus provision
within both phases does require responses overtime to ensure the
sustainability of our school offer.
Ensuring Camden has the right
number of school places is both the Council’s statutory
responsibility and aligns with our We Make
Camden principals. Preventing schools
becoming financially vulnerable and thus subject to unplanned
change, helps maintain strong, safe and
open communities. Good and outstanding schools promote independent
healthy lives and support robust growth and jobs.
The data and forecasts of the demand for
school places within Camden is reviewed annually by the authority
and made publicly available. Our review incorporates all underlying
demographic data including: existing
provision and capacity, actual registered births and fertility, the
latest GLA forecasts for births and their relationship to school
rolls, together with the additional pupils associated with new
housing developments. The analysis is used to help us make informed
decisions about the future organisation of school places.
Our understanding of the current demographic
pressures facing schools has also informed the development of
Camden’s Education Strategy ‘Building Back Stronger. A
significant part of the purpose of the of that strategy, and our
continued school organisation work, is to ensure that our school
system is sustainable and stable, maximising the opportunities for
school level collaboration.
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